https://gwils28.github.io/en/tags/causal-inference/Recent content in Causal Inference on Kwak JazzHugo -- gohugo.ioen© 2026 Wilson GomaMon, 09 Nov 2026 00:26:26 +0100https://gwils28.github.io/en/projects/novaretail-incrementalite-promos/Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://gwils28.github.io/en/projects/novaretail-incrementalite-promos/The BSTS counterfactual from the tech watch applied to the promotions of a fictional grocery chain on the Favorita data: campaigns detected rather than assumed, a donor registry, coverage measured on planted truth (0.83 to 0.90 against 0.5 to 0.7 for iid estimators), the earthquake as a test bench, Double ML, a Dagster pipeline and monitoring.https://gwils28.github.io/en/posts/impact-causal-series-temporelles/Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://gwils28.github.io/en/posts/impact-causal-series-temporelles/A counterfactual is a forecast. What I observed building one by hand, measuring its coverage on 100 panels with a known truth, planting four violations of the design, and applying it to Volkswagen’s share price after dieselgate.https://gwils28.github.io/en/posts/frequence-reentrainement/Sat, 17 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://gwils28.github.io/en/posts/frequence-reentrainement/Accuracy, freshness and stability don’t call for the same retraining frequency. What I observed on a ten-policy bench, an analytical model, the Monash electricity data and a causal simulation.