State Space on Kwak Jazzhttps://gwils28.github.io/en/tags/state-space/Recent content in State Space on Kwak JazzHugo -- gohugo.ioen© 2026 Wilson GomaMon, 09 Nov 2026 00:26:26 +0100Causal impact on time series: the counterfactual and its placeboshttps://gwils28.github.io/en/posts/impact-causal-series-temporelles/Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://gwils28.github.io/en/posts/impact-causal-series-temporelles/A counterfactual is a forecast. What I observed building one by hand, measuring its coverage on 100 panels with a known truth, planting four violations of the design, and applying it to Volkswagen’s share price after dieselgate.